Nearly half the population thinks there will be civil war

While many Americans do not use the quantitative methods of Walter and the task force, they come to the same or similar conclusions. A Washington Post poll conducted by the University of Maryland and published last week found that a third of Americans believe violence against the government can be justified.

The 42nd Harvard Youth Poll, released last December by the Institute of Politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, found that more than half of young Americans aged 18 to 29 believe that American democracy is threatened. More than a third think the United States will have a second Civil War in their lifetime.

A year ago, more than half of Americans thought the United States was in a "cold civil war," according to a poll by Edelman, a global public relations consulting firm.

A national survey conducted last year by well-known pollster John Zog found that 46 percent of Americans said civil war was likely, 43 percent said it was unlikely and 11 percent said it was uncertain.

Commenting on Zog's survey, a study by the Brookings Institution, a leading think tank, said: "With nearly half of the public believing this conflict is possible, we need to take the situation seriously. After all, this is not the first time America has been deeply divided. We should not assume it will not happen and ignore the ominous signs that the conflict is spiraling out of control."