Answer: Our required probability is 0.1875.
Step-by-step explanation:
Since we have given that
Number of students = 39
Total Number of groups = 10
Number of groups containing 4 students = 9
Number of groups containing 3 students = 1
So, Probability of getting group of 4 students = [tex]\dfrac{9}{10}[/tex]
Probability of getting group of 3 students = [tex]\dfrac{1}{10}[/tex]
Using the "Bayes theorem":
Probability that the one name will be the name of someone in the small 3-person group is given by
[tex]\dfrac{\dfrac{1}{10}\times \dfrac{3}{39}}{\dfrac{1}{10}\times \dfrac{3}{39}+\dfrac{9}{10}\times \dfrac{4}{39}}\\\\=\dfrac{\dfrac{3}{390}}{\dfrac{3+13}{390}}\\\\=\dfrac{3}{16}\\\\=0.1875[/tex]
Hence, our required probability is 0.1875.