On discovering that his family has a 75% risk of heart attack, James took a treadmill test to check his own potential of having a heart attack. The doctors told him that the reliability of the stress test is 70%. What is the probability that James will not have a heart attack and that the test predicts he will?

Respuesta :

Answer: The required probability is 0.4375.

Step-by-step explanation:

Since we have given that

Probability of having risk of heart attack = 75%= 0.75

Probability of having reliability of the stress test = 70%

Probability of not having risk of heart attack =1-0.75 = 0.25

Probability of not having reliability of the stress test = 1-0.70 = 0.30

So, the probability that James will not have a heart attack and that the test predicts he will would be :

P(not having heart attack | correct test) is given by :

[tex]=\dfrac{0.25\times 0.7}{0.25\times 0.7+0.75\times 0.3}\\\\=\dfrac{0.175}{0.175+0.225}\\\\=\dfrac{0.175}{0.4}\\\\=0.4375[/tex]

Hence, the required probability is 0.4375.