An extremely simple (and surely unreliable) weather prediction model would be one where days are of two types: sunny or rainy. A sunny day is 90% likely to be followed by another sunny day, and a rainy day is 50% likely to be followed by another rainy day. Model this as a Markov chain. If Sunday is sunny, what is the probability that Tuesday (two days later) is also sunny

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23-06-2020
Mathematics

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An extremely simple (and surely unreliable) weather prediction model would be one where days are of two types: sunny or rainy. A sunny day is 90% likely to be followed by another sunny day, and a rainy day is 50% likely to be followed by another rainy day. Model this as a Markov chain. If Sunday is sunny, what is the probability that Tuesday (two days later) is also sunny

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warylucknow warylucknow · Answer 1 · 2020-06-26T12:19:17+02:00

Answer:

The probability that if Sunday is sunny, then Tuesday is also sunny is 0.86.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let us denote the events as follows:

Event 1: a sunny day

Event 2: a rainy day

From the provided data we know that the transition probability matrix is:

[tex]\left\begin{array}{ccc}1&\ \ \ \ 2\end{array}\right[/tex]

[tex]\text{P}=\left\begin{array}{c}1&2\end{array}\right[/tex] [tex]\left[\begin{array}{cc}0.90&0.10\\0.50&0.50\end{array}\right][/tex]

In this case we need to compute that if Sunday is sunny, what is the probability that Tuesday is also sunny.

This implies that we need to compute the value of P₁₁².

Compute the value of P² as follows:

[tex]P^{2}=P\cdot P[/tex]

[tex]=\left[\begin{array}{cc}0.90&0.10\\0.50&0.50\end{array}\right]\cdot \left[\begin{array}{cc}0.90&0.10\\0.50&0.50\end{array}\right]\\\\=\left[\begin{array}{cc}0.86&0.14\\0.70&0.30\end{array}\right][/tex]

The value of P₁₁² is 0.86.

Thus, the probability that if Sunday is sunny, then Tuesday is also sunny is 0.86.