Respuesta :
Answer:
The required probability is 0.4828.
Step-by-step explanation:
We are given that a company is producing two types of ski goggles. Thirty percent of the production is of type A, and the rest is of type B.
Five percent of all type A goggles are returned within 10 days after the sale, whereas only two percent of type B are returned.
Let the probability that production is of Type A = P(A) = 30%
Probability that production is of Type B = P(B) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.30 = 70%
Also, let R = event that pair of goggles are returned
So, the probability that type A goggles are returned within 10 days after the sale = P(R/A) = 5%
Probability that type B goggles are returned within 10 days after the sale = P(R/B) = 2%
Now, given a pair of goggles is returned within the first 10 days after the sale, the probability that the goggles returned are of type B is given by = P(B/R)
We will use the concept of Bayes' Theorem to calculate the above probability.
So, P(B/R) = [tex]\frac{P(B) \times P(R/B)}{P(A) \times P(R/A)+P(B) \times P(R/B)}[/tex]
= [tex]\frac{0.70 \times 0.02}{0.30 \times 0.05+0.70 \times 0.02}[/tex]
= [tex]\frac{0.014}{0.029}[/tex] = 0.4828
