A seed randomly blows around a complex habitat. It may land on any three different soil types: a high-quality soil that gives a 0.8 chance of seed survival, a medium-quality soil that gives a 0.3 chance of survival, and a low-quality soil that gives only a 0.1 chance of survival. These three soil types (high, medium, and low) are present in the habitat in proportions 30:20:50 respectively. The probability that a seed lands on a particular soil type is proportional to the frequency of that type in the habitat. If the probability that a seed dies before lt can land on any of the soil types is 0.2, what is the overall probability of seed survival?

Respuesta :

Answer:

0.28

Step-by-step explanation:

High-quality soil gives seed: 0.8 chance of survival

Medium-quality soil gives seed : 0.3 chance of survival

Low-quality soil gives seed: 0.1 chance of survival

Proportions/frequency of soils:

High-quality soil = 30% = 0.3

Medium-quality soil = 20% = 0.2

Low-quality soil = 50% = 0.5

probability of a seed landing on a particular soil type ∝ frequency of that type in the  habitat

probability that a seed dies before landing = 0.2

A) The overall probability of seed survival

first we have to determine the probability of seed survival if it lands

= ∑ (frequency of soil * chance of seed survival)

= (0.8 * 0.3) + ( 0.3 * 0.2 ) + ( 0.1 * 0.5 ) = 0.35

hence overall probability of seed survival

= ( 1 - 0.2 ) * 0.35 = 0.28