The observed sales for January, February, March and April are 113, 122, 130 and 116, respectively. Assuming the sales forecast of 115 for January, what is the sales forecast for May with exponential smoothing method with alpha = 0.5?
a. 110.
b. 115.
c. 120.
d. 125.

Respuesta :

Answer:

The sale forecast for May is [tex]i= 120.56[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

From the question we are told that

   The  value of [tex]\alpha = 0.5[/tex]

    Month                     January           February      March           April      

   Observed sales          a=  113           b=   122        c= 130         d=   116

The  sales forecast for January is  [tex]e = 115[/tex]

Generally the sales forecast for February is mathematically represented as

      [tex]f = \alpha * a + [1- \alpha * ( e)][/tex]

=>   [tex]f = 0.5 * 113 + [(1- 0.5) * (115)][/tex]

=>   [tex]f =114[/tex]

Generally the sales forecast for March is mathematically represented as

        [tex]g = \alpha * b + [(1- \alpha) * ( f)][/tex]

=>     [tex]g = 0.5 * 122 + [(1- 0.5) * ( 118.5)][/tex]

=>     [tex]g = 120.25[/tex]

Generally the sales forecast for April is mathematically represented as            

       [tex]h= \alpha * c + [(1- \alpha) * ( g )][/tex]

=>    [tex]h= 0.5 * 130 + [(1- 0.5) * ( 120.25 )][/tex]

=>    [tex]h= 125.125[/tex]

Generally the sales forecast for April is mathematically represented as            

       [tex]i= \alpha * d + [(1- \alpha) * ( h )][/tex]

=>    [tex]i= 0.5 * 116 + [(1- 0.5) * ( 125.125 )][/tex]

=>    [tex]i= 120.56[/tex]