An interviewer is asking people on the street questions about the mayor of their town. He tells them that the new mayor has a PhD in sociology, has specialized in women's and gender studies, and has published several research papers in peer-reviewed journals. The interviewer presents the people with two situations and asks which is more probable. He asks them if it is more probable that the mayor is a women's rights activist or a politician who is also a college professor. If the interviewees pick the first situation, which error in judgment are they committing