Respuesta :
Answer:
0.5675 = 56.75% probability that at least 22 of the 44 students selected are non-history majors.
Step-by-step explanation:
The students are chosen without replacement from the sample, which means that the hypergeometric distribution is used to solve this question. We are working also with a sample with more than 10 history majors and 10 non-history majors, which mean that the normal approximation can be used to solve this question.
Hypergeometric distribution:
The probability of x successes is given by the following formula:
[tex]P(X = x) = h(x,N,n,k) = \frac{C_{k,x}*C_{N-k,n-x}}{C_{N,n}}[/tex]
In which:
x is the number of successes.
N is the size of the population.
n is the size of the sample.
k is the total number of desired outcomes.
Combinations formula:
[tex]C_{n,x}[/tex] is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.
[tex]C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}[/tex]
Normal Probability Distribution
Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.
In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the z-score of a measure X is given by:
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Approximation:
We have to use the mean and the standard deviation of the hypergeometric distribution, that is:
[tex]\mu = \frac{nk}{N}[/tex]
[tex]\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{nk(N-k)(N-n)}{N^2(N-1)}}[/tex]
In this question:
88 + 88 = 176 students, which means that [tex]N = 176[/tex]
88 non-history majors, which means that [tex]k = 88[/tex]
44 students are selected, which means that [tex]n = 44[/tex]
Mean and standard deviation:
[tex]\mu = \frac{44*88}{176} = 22[/tex]
[tex]\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{44*88*(176-88)*(176-44)}{176^2(175-1)}} = 2.88[/tex]
What is the probability that at least 22 of the 44 students selected are non-history majors?
Using continuity correction, as the hypergeometric distribution is discrete and the normal is continuous, this is [tex]P(X \geq 22 - 0.5) = P(X \geq 21.5)[/tex], which is 1 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 21.5. So
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]
[tex]Z = \frac{21.5 - 22}{2.88}[/tex]
[tex]Z = -0.17[/tex]
[tex]Z = -0.17[/tex] has a p-value of 0.4325
1 - 0.4325 = 0.5675
0.5675 = 56.75% probability that at least 22 of the 44 students selected are non-history majors.
