A previous survey of Washington residents showed that 18% of residents accessed a state park within the last 12 months. This year, the state would like to re-administer the survey, but wants to be sure the Margin of Error in their new study will be at most 4%. Assuming they believe the previous survey's results were reliable, how many samples should they take to ensure their Margin of Error is at most 4% if they plan to analyze the data using a 95% confidence interval

Respuesta :

Using the z-distribution for the margin of error, it is found that 355 samples should be taken.

In a sample with a number n of people surveyed with a probability of a success of [tex]\pi[/tex], and a confidence level of [tex]\alpha[/tex], we have the following confidence interval of proportions.

[tex]\pi \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

In which  z is the z-score that has a p-value of [tex]\frac{1+\alpha}{2}[/tex].

The margin of error is given by:

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

The estimate is of 18%, hence [tex]\pi = 0.18[/tex].

95% confidence, hence [tex]\alpha = 0.95[/tex], z is the value of Z that has a p-value of [tex]\frac{1+0.95}{2} = 0.975[/tex], so [tex]z = 1.96[/tex].  

The minimum sample size is n for which M = 0.04, hence:

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.04 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.18(0.82)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.04\sqrt{n} = 1.96\sqrt{0.18(0.82)}[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96\sqrt{0.18(0.82)}}{0.04}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^2 = \left(\frac{1.96\sqrt{0.18(0.82)}}{0.04}\right)^2[/tex]

[tex]n = 354.4[/tex]

Rounding up, 355 samples should be taken.

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