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Finding a sunken submarine in the middle of the ocean using Bayes' theorem to the search for USS Scorpion.
- In the event of a missing vessel or aircraft at sea, in this case a submarine, Bayes search theorem can be applied.
The ocean using Bayes' theorem: the search for the Scorpion.
- In May 1968, the U.S. Navy's nuclear submarine USS Scorpion (SSN-589) failed to arrive as expected at her home port of Norfolk.
- The command officers of the U.S. Navy were nearly certain that the vessel had been lost off the Eastern Seaboard, but an extensive search there failed to discover the remains of Scorpion.
- Then John P. Craven, a Navy deep-water expert, proposed that Scorpion had sunk somewhere else.
- Based on a contentious approximation of hydrophone triangulation, Craven organized a search southwest of the Azores.
- He was only given one ship, Mizar, and to make the most of his resources, he sought help from a team of consulting mathematicians.
- A Bayesian search approach was used. To develop theories regarding what might have led to Scorpion's loss, veteran submarine commanders were questioned.
What is Bayes' theorem?
- Bayes' theorem is a theorem in probability theory. It is a trivial consequence of the definition of conditional probability.
- Bayesian search theory is the application of Bayesian statistics to the search for lost objects.
Learn more about Bayes' theorem
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