He is saying that comparing the likelihood of reconciliation to historical examples of how people have responded to crises is not the same as comparing it to your own aspirations and worries at the time. Utilizing common sense
RECONCILIATION implies the cool, collected, and mature agreement of two adults, but Paine wants you to see reconciliation as the defeatist decision of weak subjects who were never able to take care of themselves. Alternatively put, DEPENDENCE
Paine contends that rapprochement with the British will only lead to a repetition of the current circumstance. Paine claims that after the conflicts and financial oppression that have taken place, it will be hard to return to a condition of peace and normalcy under British authority.
In his 47-page treatise Common Sense, Thomas Paine urged residents of the Thirteen Colonies to secede from Great Britain in 1775–1776. Paine assembled moral and political reasons in his writing, which was clear and powerful, to persuade regular people in the Colonies to strive for egalitarian government.
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