Respuesta :
The reason why Literary Digest was incorrect in its prediction of the 1936 presidential election is because it had not obtained a random sample of the population, and its readers were generally wealthy and not reflective of the population at large.
What happened to the 1936 Literary Digest Poll?
The Literary Digest poll's dire prediction of Alf Landon's victory in the 1936 presidential election is a milestone in American polling research in general, and polling history in particular. It marks both the demise of straw voting, of which Digest magazine was the most prominent and respected example, and the rise of self-proclaimed "scientific" polls. Why did the digest vote fail miserably? Over the years, one view has prevailed:
Digest chose its samples primarily from phone books and auto-registration lists, and since most wealthy people voted Republican at the time, it's no wonder the magazine incorrectly predicted a Republican victory. has been incorporated into countless publications (scientific and journalism) and courses. It was used to explain the disastrous results of poorly designed surveys. But is it correct? Empirical evidence in the form of the 1937 Gallup Poll shows this "conventional explanation" to be false. Because voters with phones and cars supported Franklin D. Roosevelt, and they were the people who didn't vote (mainly Roosevelt supporters).
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