We have an infinite collection of biased coins, indexed by the positive integers. coini has probability 2-1 of being selected. a flip of coin i results in heads with probability 3-1. We select a coin and flip it. What is the probability that the result is Heads? The geometric sum formula may be useful here:infinity i=1 alphai=alpha/1-alpha, when lalphal < 1
The probability that the result is Heads is:______.

Respuesta :

First, let's find the overall probability of getting heads after selecting a coin and flipping it.

Let's define:

Event A: Selecting coin i with probability 2^-i.

Event B: Getting heads when flipping coin i with probability 3^-i.

Thus, the probability of getting heads overall can be expressed as the sum of the probabilities of getting heads for each coin weighted by the probability of selecting that coin:

P(Heads) = Σ [P(coin i) * P(Heads | coin i)] for i from 1 to ∞

P(Heads) = Σ [2^-i * 3^-i] for i from 1 to ∞

Using the geometric sum formula:

Σ α^i = α / (1 - α) when |α| < 1

In this case, α = 2/3, which is less than 1, so we can use the formula:

P(Heads) = (2/3) / (1 - (2/3)) = (2/3) / (1/3) = 2

Therefore, the probability that the result is Heads is 2.