The expected value of your profit is -0.25 which is loss, if probability of winning is 0.001.
The area of mathematics known as probability explores potential outcomes of events as well as their relative probabilities and distributions. In everyday speech, the term "probability" refers to the likelihood that a specific event (or set of events) will take place, expressed as a number between 0 and 100% or as a linear scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty). Statistics is the study of events that follow a probability distribution.
Given,
Probability of winning = 0.001
probability of losing = 0.999
Expected value of profit can be calculated,
E(x)
= (749 x 0.001) + (-1 x 0.999)
= -0.25
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